Opening Thoughts
- Stress-free road Ws>>>>>>>
- Ranked Pitt <<<<<<<
- Crazy to think we were shoveling dirt on Neal’s casket just three weeks ago and he now has the chance to firmly plant us in the Big 12 driver's seat with back-to-back top 15 night bangers. You have my curiosity, Neal. If you get these next two, you will have my attention.
WHEN AND WHERE
Date: Saturday, October 12, 2024
Kickoff Time: 8:00PM ET
Location: Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, West Virginia
HOW TO WATCH/LISTEN
Channel: FOX
Announcers: Tim Brando (PBP), Devin Gardner (analyst), and Josh Sims (sideline)
Online Streaming: FOX Sports with a valid cable subscription
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Radio: Mountaineer Sports Network from IMG (Radio Affiliates) | SiriusXM 158 or 199 & Streaming Channel 953 | WVU Gameday App (Apple | Android)
Radio Announcers: Tony Caridi (PBP), Dwight Wallace (analyst), Jed Drenning (sideline), Andrew Caridi, and John Antonik (Pre/Postgame Show)
Reminder: It is against site policy to post links to illegal streams in the comments.
DEGENERATION STATION
Spread: WVU +2.5 (love it)
ML: +122 (love it)
O/U: 53.5 (leaning over, both offenses have advantages against the opposing D)
Props: Love our rushing props - this is another week where I expect us to be at least 70% run.
WHEN THEY HAVE THE BALL
Data is Beautiful
- 58. Percent target share for receivers Higgins and Noel, Becht is always looking for these guys.
- 88. Completion percentage when Becht targets Higgins from 0-20 yards. An elite chain mover.
- 51.4. Average yards per reception for Jaylin Noel when targeted on throws of more than 20 yards. They don’t throw deep often, but dude’s a problem when they do.
Jimmies and Joes
- QB Rocco Becht - a quick decision maker and athletic enough to hurt us with his legs.
- RBs Abu Sama, Jaylon Jackson, and Carson Hansen - by committee, featuring a couple of boom or busters and a sledgehammer.
- WRs Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel - your stereotypical 6’5 Iowa State guy and an elite slot man.
- TE Ben Brahmer - an emerging threat in the passing game.
- OL - the weakness we thought it'd be, PBLK grade is the worst in the conference and only one of the six-man rotation is grading out above 65.
X’s and O’s
The Cyclones aren’t exactly lighting up scoreboards, but they have a decent enough thing going offensively right now. They have three solid running backs, two excellent receivers, an emerging tight end, and an efficient quarterback who doesn't put them in bad spots. They’re actually 56% run and reasonably productive at it, but I think that piece should be manageable for us considering their issues up front. However, the pass game is concerning. Becht has great chemistry with receivers Higgins and Noel and tight end Ben Brahmer and is really good at finding those guys in zone holes. They'll take shots to Noel every now and then, but they prioritize timing and efficiency in the short-to-intermediate areas. Finding our zones had been an issue for us until last weekend in Stillwater, but we'll need to be even better this weekend if we want to keep them in check.
Advantages - our defensive line should be able to control the LOS and limit the run against these guys.
Concerns - Higgins and Noel are going to cause us problems, simple as. Can we mitigate those issues and keep things in front of us?
WHEN WE HAVE IT
Data is Beautiful
- 11. Takeaways for the Cyclones through 5 games.
- 1.4. Average turnover margin for the Cyclones, good for 6th nationally. Basically cheating.
- 7. Red zone opportunities allowed this season, good for 3rd fewest nationally behind Ohio State and Texas. They do the margins well.
- 15.6. Explosive rush rate allowed by the Cyclones this year. As in, opponents are generating at 10+ yard run once every six or seven carries.
Jimmies and Joes
- IDLs - Singleton and Orange are solid, Singleton already has 3 sacks.
- Edges - serviceable but not a ton of pop, Tyler Onyedim is the best of the bunch and their message boards are underwhelmed by him.
- LB - the injury bug has hit this room very hard, and what’s left is not good.
- Secondary - unquestionably the strength of the defense, corners and safeties are all good, disciplined players.
X’s and O’s
There should be no surprises at this point about what the Cyclones are defensively. Jon Heacock’s bend-but-don’t-break unit will line up in an odd front and drop seven or eight into coverage, which means they don't generate great havoc numbers but also means they don't allow many big plays (just 14 20+ plays allowed, paces the conference). They did actually send some pressure against Baylor (41% blitz rate), but that was an outlier when looking at the rest of the season and fortunately I don't expect this to be a game where we're looking to pass much.
I think our gameplan will generally mirror last week's - run the ball against this vulnerable front 6, manufacture opportunities to attack down in the passing game, and have Garrett take what's there with his legs if nothing's open. This defense feasts on teams getting impatient and forcing the ball into bad situations, but if we can resist the urge to do that then this is a team we can move it and score points on.
Advantages - the front 6 is generally weak, especially at linebacker, and we’ve seen multiple times over the past two seasons what this running game can do against teams those issues.
Concerns - they always seem to create turnovers, and we haven’t always been clean with the ball this year.
Prediction
Iowa State strikes me as a team that is above average at most things, but it has one or two strengths and weaknesses that will likely decide this one.
Starting with the former, they consistently win the margins. They simply do not hurt themselves with turnovers, penalties, or negative plays/drives, and that, combined with some clutch playmaking from their receivers and secondary, has been enough to get them wins against the teams they’ve played.
However, they don’t generate a ton of explosives, don’t create a lot of havoc, they’re generally weak in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and they’re decimated with injuries at linebacker, which obviously is a problem with the way we want to run the ball.
It’s a team needs mistakes to play with more talented teams (which I think we are), so for me this should be as simple as playing fundamentally sound (which we can but don’t always do), controlling the LOS on both sides and running the football (like our chances), and not forcing anything against a secondary that is willing to take the ball away (fingers crossed). If we do that, we win. End of story, LFG.
